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Market Sizing Agent Skill

przezphuryn26Kgwiazdki GitHubGitHub

Market sizing with TAM, SAM, and SOM estimates using top-down and bottom-up methods. Get growth projections and key assumptions to validate investor pitches and market entry.

strategySkan bezpieczeństwa zakończony pomyślnie

Komenda instalacji

$ npx skills add https://github.com/phuryn/pm-skills/tree/main/pm-market-research/skills/market-sizing

Sygnały instalacji

Aktywność instalacji

O umiejętności

Market sizing helps product managers, founders, and expansion teams quantify a product opportunity before committing resources. It estimates TAM, SAM, and SOM, forecasts growth over two to three years, and surfaces the key assumptions behind each number.

The skill combines top-down industry sizing with bottom-up unit economics, reconciles the two approaches, and scopes SAM based on geography, channels, pricing, and product capabilities. It also produces an investor-ready summary table and flags risks with confidence levels.

Use it when preparing investor pitches, evaluating a new market entry, or cross-validating estimates with current industry data. Provide a target market and constraints, or share research and competitor data for the skill to analyze directly.

Kluczowe funkcje

Co czyni ją mocną

  • Top-down and bottom-up market sizing

    Triangulate TAM from industry-level data and unit economics, then reconcile both approaches to produce a defensible annual revenue opportunity.

  • TAM, SAM, and SOM scoping

    Break the total market into serviceable and obtainable segments with geography, channel, and pricing constraints so you can show a realistic path.

  • Growth projections to validate assumptions

    Forecast 2-3 year market evolution and flag high, medium, or low confidence assumptions that may change your estimates.

  • Investor-ready market summary

    Generate a concise table comparing current and projected TAM, SAM, and SOM, plus growth drivers and risks for pitch decks.

  • Data-backed research and citations

    Use web search and provided reports to ground market sizing in current industry data rather than unsupported numbers.

Przypadki użycia

Kiedy jej używać

  • Size a new market opportunity

    Product teams use market sizing to quantify demand before committing resources to a new product or feature.

  • Prepare an investor pitch

    Founders generate TAM, SAM, and SOM estimates with assumptions to support fundraising narratives.

  • Evaluate market entry

    Expansion teams scope geography, customer segments, and serviceable share when entering a new market.

  • Cross-validate market estimates

    Analysts compare top-down and bottom-up methods to reconcile market sizing and sharpen forecasts.

SKILL.md

Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM)

Purpose

Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate.

Instructions

You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting.

Input

Your task is to estimate the market size for $ARGUMENTS within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.).

If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections.

Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step)

  1. Market Definition: Define the market boundaries — what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply
  2. Top-Down Estimation: Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice
  3. Bottom-Up Estimation: Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate
  4. SAM Scoping: Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints
  5. SOM Estimation: Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity
  6. Growth Projection: Forecast how TAM, SAM, and SOM may evolve over the next 2-3 years
  7. Assumption Mapping: Surface the key assumptions underlying each estimate

Output Structure

Market Definition

  • Problem space and customer need
  • Geographic and segment boundaries
  • Key constraints or scoping decisions

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

  • Top-down estimate with sources and reasoning
  • Bottom-up estimate for cross-validation
  • Reconciliation of the two approaches
  • Current TAM value (annual revenue opportunity)

SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

  • Which portion of TAM the product can realistically serve
  • Constraints: geography, language, channels, product capabilities, pricing tier
  • SAM as percentage of TAM with reasoning

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

  • Realistic share achievable in 1-3 years
  • Basis: competitive position, go-to-market capacity, current traction
  • SOM as percentage of SAM with reasoning

Market Summary Table

MetricCurrent Estimate2-3 Year Projection
TAM
SAM
SOM

Growth Drivers & Trends

  • Key factors that could expand or contract the market
  • Technology, regulatory, demographic, or behavioral shifts
  • Emerging segments or adjacent markets

Key Assumptions & Risks

  • Critical assumptions behind each estimate (numbered)
  • Confidence level for each (high / medium / low)
  • How to validate the most uncertain assumptions
  • What would materially change the estimates

Best Practices

  • Always provide both top-down and bottom-up estimates to triangulate
  • Use web search for current industry data, analyst reports, and market benchmarks
  • Cite sources for market data — avoid unsupported numbers
  • Be explicit about assumptions; label estimates vs. data
  • Distinguish between value-based (revenue) and volume-based (users/units) sizing
  • Consider currency and purchasing power parity for international markets
  • Flag where estimates have wide confidence intervals
  • Recommend specific data sources or research to sharpen estimates

Further Reading

  • Market Research: Advanced Techniques
  • User Interviews: The Ultimate Guide to Research Interviews
  • Crossing the Chasm: The Ultimate Guide For PMs
  • Product Innovation Masterclass (video course)

FAQ